Certainty
Emissions Gap Report 2019 published by the UN Environment Programme defines uncertainty as: ‘A cognitive state of incomplete knowledge that can result from a lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. It may have many types of sources, from imprecision in the data to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain projections of human behaviour. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by quantitative measures (for example a probability density function) or by qualitative statements (for example reflecting the judgement of a team of experts).’
Articles on Designing Buildings Wiki relating to types of uncertainty include:
NB Guide to developing the project business case, Better business cases: for better outcomes, published by HM Treasury in 2018, suggests that uncertainty: ‘Is unmeasured risk where known risks are not yet well enough understood to be estimated in terms of probability or impact and where not all risks may be identified and quantified.’
Anticipate, react, recover; Resilient infrastructure systems, published by the National Infrastructure Commission in May 2020, defines uncertainty as: ‘Limited and unknowable knowledge about future, past, or current events and conditions. Uncertainty includes natural variability (aleatory uncertainty), knowledge gaps (epistemic uncertainty), ambiguous meanings (semantic uncertainty), unknown unknowns (ontological uncertainty), and subjectivity.’
AR5 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Glossary, published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines uncertainty as: ‘A state of incomplete knowledge that can result from a lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. It may have many types of sources, from imprecision in the data to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain projections of human behavior. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by quantitative measures (e.g., a probability density function) or by qualitative statements (e.g., reflecting the judgment of a team of experts)’
Cost prediction, Professional Statement, 1st edition, published in November 2020 by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), defines uncertainty as: ‘A lack of complete certainty. In uncertainty, the outcome of any event is entirely unknown, and it cannot be measured or guessed; there is no background information on the event. Uncertainty is not an unknown risk.’
[edit] Related articles on Designing Buildings
Featured articles and news
Gregor Harvie argues that AI is state-sanctioned theft of IP.
Experimental AI housing target help for councils
Experimental AI could help councils meet housing targets by digitising records.
New-style degrees set for reformed ARB accreditation
Following the ARB Tomorrow's Architects competency outcomes for Architects.
BSRIA Occupant Wellbeing survey BOW
Occupant satisfaction and wellbeing tool inc. physical environment, indoor facilities, functionality and accessibility.
Preserving, waterproofing and decorating buildings.
Many resources for visitors aswell as new features for members.
Using technology to empower communities
The Community data platform; capturing the DNA of a place and fostering participation, for better design.
Heat pump and wind turbine sound calculations for PDRs
MCS publish updated sound calculation standards for permitted development installations.
Homes England creates largest housing-led site in the North
Successful, 34 hectare land acquisition with the residential allocation now completed.
Scottish apprenticeship training proposals
General support although better accountability and transparency is sought.
The history of building regulations
A story of belated action in response to crisis.
Moisture, fire safety and emerging trends in living walls
How wet is your wall?
Current policy explained and newly published consultation by the UK and Welsh Governments.
British architecture 1919–39. Book review.
Conservation of listed prefabs in Moseley.
Energy industry calls for urgent reform.
Heritage staff wellbeing at work survey.
Comments
[edit] To make a comment about this article, or to suggest changes, click 'Add a comment' above. Separate your comments from any existing comments by inserting a horizontal line.