Three point estimation
A three-point estimate is a method used to estimate the cost or duration of a project task or activity. It is commonly used in project management, and it is particularly important in the construction industry, where projects can be complex and involve many different tasks
It involves using three estimates: an optimistic estimate, a most likely estimate, and a pessimistic estimate.
- The optimistic estimate is the best-case scenario for how long the task will take or how much it will cost.
- The pessimistic estimate is the worst-case scenario.
- The most likely estimate is the estimate it is believed is the most accurate representation of how long the task will take or how much it will cost based on their experience and expertise.
To calculate the three-point estimate, the three estimates are first added together and then divided by three to give an expected value. This expected value can be used to help project managers plan resources and schedule tasks more accurately.
Should cost modelling, Development Guidance, Version 1.0, published by Government Commercial Function in May 2021 states: ‘This technique uses three different estimates of potential costs, the most likely, optimistic and pessimistic profiles. These estimates are then aggregated and averaged to provide estimates that are adjusted for extremes. It is often applied in the context of Monte Carlo simulation to produce probabilistic outputs.’
[edit] Related articles on Designing Buildings
Featured articles and news
The continued ISG fall out, where to go?
Support for ISG contractors, companies and employees.
New HES national centre for traditional building retrofit
Announced as HES publishes survey results which reveal strong support for retrofit.
Retrofit of Buildings, a CIOB Technical Publication
Expected to become one of the largest activities in the global construction industry.
The ECA industry focus video channel
Keeping update with the industry session by session.
Over 25 recorded informations sessions freely available.
AT Awards 2024 ceremony East London October 25th.
Revisiting the AT community at the 2023 awards evening.
The Community Housing Fund and built affordable homes
CLTN reviews the impact of the Fund and calls for extension.
The grading system of the Regulator for Social Housing
A background, an explanation and ten recent enforcements.
Construction, repair and maintenance. Book review.
Putting new life into a city with a 1900 year history.
BSRIA Briefing 2024: Sustainable Futures speakers
Redefining Retrofit for Net Zero Living 22 Nov.
Wall of support for post-Grenfell regulation of electricians
Call for a shake-up of the construction industry highlighted on radio.
Digital sustainability through future AEC tools
Bringing together industry and academia to meet challenges.
Skills gap for net zero highlighted to Minister for Industry
ECA convenes roundtable discussion at Portcullis House.
Evidencing Net Zero with the new UK buildings standard
Pilot version with detailed excel proforma out now!
Scottish Building Safety Levy, in consultation
From direct remediation and the RPDT, to the costs and alternatives.
Waves of warmer homes grants for the rental sector
Boosting energy efficiency standards for all rented homes.
A refocus of the National Planning Policy Framework
Key terms described in brief, as the consultation closes the evening of the 24th.
Fortified farmhouses of the unruly 16th-and 17th-century borders.